Market analysis on July 11-12

July 11th


* Over 1-10 exports increased by 4.7%, trade deficit $ 5.5 billion

* The Financial Investment Association’s Debt Market Indicators in August 2022 -Market Psychology Improvements even though the survey respondents have predicted Big Step for Big Step

* Hi Investment & Securities, the dollar value will pass in the peak in the third quarter of the dollar.

* Prepare for the possibility of increasing the US bond market fed interest rate hikes. (Considering the possibility of raising 100bp)

* US CPI waiting in June, and concerns about further inflation (May 8.6% annual inflation increase in May is not like a peak)

* Kansas City Yeon (a person who opposes an increase in the 75bp increase in June)

* Atlanta Yeon supports 75bp increase from FOMC in July

* New York York is expected to have no economic downturn in the process of returning the governor’s inflation to 2%, but there will be no economic downturn.

* New York Kite is expected to be an expectation of 6.8% for expectations in one year …


* Strengthen the dollar in fear that the Fed can strengthen high intensity tightening due to strong US market employment indicators.

* Waiting for 바카라 the KFTC and the bond market quietly moves in general (even if it’s a big stay in the Kummun Committee, it’s expected to have no big movements because it’s already a market shelf).

* As the US bond market will be raised in mind 100bp, the price of government bonds is rising due to concerns over the economic downturn.

July 12th


* July Big Step in July, Big Step is expected to spread in August

-The consumer prices and expected inflation are high and the won is weak.

-As US employment indicators exceeded the market forecast, the Fed has also been likely to adjust monetary tightening speeds.

* White House CPI will be very high in June, but energy prices have come down this month, so June CPI is interpreted as an out of date.

* Corona reconsideration tax

-Macau blockade-> Chinese stock market is weak due to preference for safety assets.

* Dollar preferences spread by plunging the euro value due to fear of stop supplying gas supply

* Due to the US President Jobiden’s visit to the Middle East ($ 102) due to expectations for traveling to the Middle East ($ 102)


* Kummong Commission Big Step Interest Rate Interest Rate Approval Awareness + External Bonds

* The dollar preference is spreading due to a plunge in the euro value.

* Ahead of the CPI announcement in June, the overall Asian stock market is weak in the CPI burden


* Investors who invest in the original government bonds consider not only the ROK-US spread, but also the ‘Big Step Ripening Effect’.

-The ‘ripple effect’ here is a sudden increase in interest rates, indicating that bonds are strong.

Korea, which meets the US and staff in a global monetary policy tightening machine, is interpreted as a bad environment for foreign investors. This is because the original bonds are so good that the credit rating is the same as the UK. Considering the weakening of the won, the buying environment is improving.

Trader of the Global Hedge Fund said, “Investors who weren the global portfolio are the basic bass compared to the risk,” he said. .

As investors diversified in the won bonds, their duration and perspectives diversified. While interest rate levels are important, there are some places that are aiming for volatility. They pay attention to the slowdown in Korea after VIXTEP.

A trader in Hong Kong said, “Before deciding to raise a 50bp interest rate next month, the Bank of Korea’s clear signal is required (GIVEN MARKET is new to ‘Big Step’ Think More Clarity is needed from the bok before pricing Another 50 BPS HIKE in August ) “In the market, the interest rate hike cycle is completed faster, considering the economic concern and the uncertainty of CPI next year. Giveen the Uncertainty of Next year CPI with a Certainly Unfavourable Base Effect.


However, there were concerns about the prices of our country. As the prices have not been peaked yet, it is difficult to cut priming similar to the United States.

Singapore’s trader said, “The US has been able to follow the route in the face of the current increase in the possibility of cuts after the current increase.” MOM) While passing through the peak, Korea is more likely to maintain the expected route. ”

“Korea has a low beta when the interest rate is strengthened after the Kummun Committee, and it seems to be more likely to be underperformed compared to the core market,” he said. did.


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