Alabama at Ole Miss odds, picks and predictions

The No. 11 Alabama Crimson Tide (7-2, 4-2 SEC) and No. 9 Ole Miss Rebels (8-1, 4-1) meet Saturday at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford, Miss. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.M. ET (CBS). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Alabama vs. Ole Missodds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.

Rankings courtesy of theAFCA Coaches Pollpowered by USA TODAY Sports.

The Crimson Tide – No. 9 in the College Football Playoff rankings – likely lost its chances at a CFP slot with a 32-31 overtime loss at LSU last Saturday. Alabama has now lost 2 of its last 3 games and is 1-3 ATS over its last 4 games.

Ole Miss is No. 11 in the CFP rankings. The Rebels lost to LSU 2 games back, but they bounced back with a 31-28 triumph at Texas A&M Oct. 29. Mississippi was idle last week.

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Alabama at Ole Miss odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:04 a.M. ET.

  • Moneyline: Alabama -400 (bet $400 to win $100) | Ole Miss +320 (bet $100 to win $320).
  • Against the spread (ATS): Alabama -11 (-109) | Ole Miss +11 (-111).
  • Over/Under (O/U): 65 (O: -106 | U: -114).
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    Alabama at Ole Miss picks and predictions

    Prediction

    Alabama 41, Ole Miss 31.

    Moneyline

    Slot this game as a near-30% chance for Ole Miss and Tide -8.5 as being a fair line in a vacuum. What we get, however, is Alabama coming off a loss. A dangerous animal backed into a corner.

    The Over fits as the best play in this one, but out of curiosity mixed with hunch – and a helping of the in-a-vacuum analytics – I’m setting aside a third-of-a-unit to spread here and in ATS play.

    On a small-confidence lean, BET OLE MISS (+350) for a terrific value.

    Against the spread

    See the above and match the small play with OLE MISS +11 (-111).

    Over/Under

    The Over is 5-2 in the last 7 UA-UM meetings, and it’s 4-0 in the Rebels’ last 4 games overall.

    Ole Miss wants to run the football. The Rebels average 267.2 rushing yards per game (3rd FBS). Alabama’s advanced numbers against the ground game are not as glowing as their 104.0 yards per game allowed (11th FBS), and Ole Miss staying on schedule in early downs would not be a shock.

    The Rebels are also a capable team in punching in red-zone opportunities. Alabama is solid defensively in that department but not an iron-clad lid on the painted grass as it has been in past years.

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    Peg the OVER 65 (-106) as being the best value in this game.

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